02/15/07: A Realistic Review of the Immigration Debate
Category: 3. Personal thoughts on public issues
Posted by: kacz
There seem to be three primary arguments put forth when discussing the issue of immigration; whether legal or illegal. Perhaps I'm wrong, but here they are:
1. Illegal immigration cause significant real-wage deflation which becomes more pronounced as one descends the economic ladder.
2. Illegal immigration increases the cost of social / civil programs to American taxpayers.
3. Illegal immigration is illegal and proposals to provide some sort of amnesty program for illegal immigrants is tantamount to condoning illegal activity and therefore would invite more illegal activity.
I'd like to address each of these in some brevity and then request that others riff off these ideas in a constructive manner.
A preface...
We are a nation of immigrants. My own forebears arrived on the shores of this country less than 100 years ago (1910 to be precise, or at least the Polish side). The argument that America is for Americans ignores our own history in this regard and taken to an extreme would require that anyone not here when the first Europeans arrived by wooden ship vacate the premises in favor of the children of those millions of idigenous peoples many of our American ancestors slaughtered on their way to Manifest Destiny. So my preference is to put this angle of any ensuing argument to rest.
On to the three arguments and some commentary...
Sure, this is a lot of data. What to do about it remains the question. I propose the following:
1. Illegal immigration cause significant real-wage deflation which becomes more pronounced as one descends the economic ladder.
2. Illegal immigration increases the cost of social / civil programs to American taxpayers.
3. Illegal immigration is illegal and proposals to provide some sort of amnesty program for illegal immigrants is tantamount to condoning illegal activity and therefore would invite more illegal activity.
I'd like to address each of these in some brevity and then request that others riff off these ideas in a constructive manner.
A preface...
We are a nation of immigrants. My own forebears arrived on the shores of this country less than 100 years ago (1910 to be precise, or at least the Polish side). The argument that America is for Americans ignores our own history in this regard and taken to an extreme would require that anyone not here when the first Europeans arrived by wooden ship vacate the premises in favor of the children of those millions of idigenous peoples many of our American ancestors slaughtered on their way to Manifest Destiny. So my preference is to put this angle of any ensuing argument to rest.
On to the three arguments and some commentary...
- Illegal immigration cause significant real-wage deflation which becomes more pronounced as one descends the economic ladder.
- A recent study by Harvard economists found that illegal Mexican immigrants undercut wages for U.S.-born high school dropouts by 8.2 percent from 1980 through 2000. That's 40 cents an hour (less) as a result of 20 years of Mexican migration.
An offsetting set of stats indicates that the average cost of fresh and processed fruits and vegetables would rise by 2.5% if current rates of illegal immigration were stemmed. This would result in a decrease of the 8.2% affect on real-wages to approximately 7% affect on real wages.
- However, the severe drop in the value of minimum wage over that same period of time explains represents significantly higher deflationary pressure on real wages. The real-value of minimum wage compared to the average hourly wage has been slashed by over 40% since 1950. This drop cannot be attributed to illegal immigration but to legislative indifference (or more darkly, legislative catering to the demands of the employers who pay for elections).
- The massive shift from high-paying manufacturing jobs to low-paying service industry jobs explains another significant portion of real-wage deflation.
- The Journal of the American Medical Association estimates that with current trends, by 2020 the US will face a shortage of over 1 million healthcare professionals. It is likely therefore that within 15 years the majority of workers staffing hospitals and clinics will be foreign born.
- According to the Aspen Institute’s Domestic Strategy Group, the result of trends in job demand growth and labor pool contraction is a projected gap of 14 million skilled workers by 2020 and nearly 25 million total workers in the US alone.
- Over the next 30 years, the ratio of the number of workers to the number of social benefits recipients will shrink by 36% causing massive disruptions in the financial security of millions of Americans voting today.
Does illegal immigration deflate wages? Yes, but not nearly as significantly as any politician would have you believe. Is immigration causing the slow death of the lower-middle class and placing significant pressure on the lowest rungs of our economic ladder? Not really. Those effects can be laid at the doorstep of your local Congressperson and employer.
"Should I hate a people for the shade of their skin Or the shape of their eyes or the shape I'm in Should I hate 'em for having our jobs today No I hate the men sent the jobs away" -- James McMurtry in the lyrics to "We Can't Make it Here Anymore"
- A recent study by Harvard economists found that illegal Mexican immigrants undercut wages for U.S.-born high school dropouts by 8.2 percent from 1980 through 2000. That's 40 cents an hour (less) as a result of 20 years of Mexican migration.
- Illegal immigration increases the cost of social / civil programs to American taxpayers.
- A recent study done in California contends that the average Hispanic immigrant household takes in $5000.00 more in state and federal and local services that they pay in taxes with the lion's share of this being spent on public education.
- An argument could be made that today's Hispanic children in today's public schools will be tomorrows consumers and tax payers. Education is either an investment in the future of America or it ain't.
- A recent study done in California contends that the average Hispanic immigrant household takes in $5000.00 more in state and federal and local services that they pay in taxes with the lion's share of this being spent on public education.
- Illegal immigration is illegal and proposals to provide some sort of amnesty program for illegal immigrants is tantamount to condoning illegal activity and therefore would invite more illegal activity.
This in my mind is the most compelling argument for stemming illegal immigration. Either we are a nation of laws or we are a nation goverened by corporate convenience.
Sure, this is a lot of data. What to do about it remains the question. I propose the following:
- It does no good to sound-bite the argument into "America for Americans" or Lou-Dobbs the argument into "close the borders, illegal aliens are destroying our way of life". We need immigration and lots of it.
- Simply providing amnesty for law breakers will only encourage more law breakers (although a growing economy and pletiful jobs is providing all the encouragement needed at the moment, thank you very much).
- The way forward is I think four-fold:
- Provide tighter border security to slow the flow of illegal immigration.
- Put teeth into the enforcement of work-place rules governing the use of illegal immigration.
- Increase legal immigration significantly to attract and keep high-value skills.
- Strongly support and if necessary fund economic changes throughout Latin America that would encourage indigenous peoples to stay home. If the economy in Mexico worked for the average illegal immigrant, then the need or desire to leave would be lessened. The corollary to this approach has already been espoused in the "War on Terror" in which America chooses to take the fight to the source so the fight doesn't end up on the streets of American cities.
- Provide tighter border security to slow the flow of illegal immigration.
